Trends and Factors Associated with the Increase in Dengue Cases in Cochabamba: A Longitudinal Study 2019-2024

Abstract

Introduction: Dengue, transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito, is a growing global public health problem, particularly in Cochabamba, where climatic factors and urbanization favor its proliferation. Between 2020 and 2023, cases increased alarmingly, underscoring the need for surveillance and prevention. This study will analyze trends from 2019 to 2024, correlating incidence with rainfall. Methodology: This quantitative, longitudinal, and retrospective study analyzed trends in suspected dengue cases in Cochabamba from 2019 to 2024. It used data from Form 302 of the SNIS Bolivia, covering epidemiological and rainy periods. Descriptive analysis was performed with SPSS and compared with previous studies to validate results and formulate health policies. Results: Weekly dengue data in Cochabamba, divided into inter-epidemic and rainy periods, show a significant increase in cases in 2023–2024 (13,940 cases) compared to previous years. The highest peaks are observed during the end of the rainy period, especially in week 21 of 2023-2024, highlighting the seasonality of the disease. Discussion: The analysis of suspected dengue cases in Cochabamba (2019-2024) shows a drastic increase in 2023–2024, with 13,940 cases. This increase may be influenced by climate change, urban growth, and variations in epidemiological surveillance. The peaks are concentrated in the rainy season, emphasizing the need to strengthen control and prevention measures.